机构预测一季度投资增长低于14% 积极财政政策将出台

经济参考报   2015-04-08 09:01

综合多家机构预测，一季度我国累计固定资产投资同比增速可能在13.8%左右，较今年前两个月的13.9%进一步回落。鉴于投资增长仍然是当前我国经济增长的主要力量，积极财政政策在二季度加码几成定局，决策部门将拿出多种手段增加有效投资，基建投资增长有望进一步提速。市场预测，致力于增加有效投资的政策很可能在本月中上旬就会出台。

“综合判断，预计1至3月固定资产投资累计同比增速13.8%，继续小幅下降。”交通银行高级宏观分析师唐建伟表示，今年1至2月固定资产投资资金来源增速急剧下滑至6.7%，是2000年以来首次跌入个位数增长，资金来源受限将显著压低今年固定资产投资增速。

瑞银证券的预测数字与交通银行一致。但是中金公司的预测仅为13%。瑞银集团首席中国经济学家汪涛认为，受房地产下滑和疲弱的工业投资拖累，实体经济活动依然羸弱。

鉴于投资对当前经济增长的重要意义，二季度积极财政政策大概率加码，从而带动基建投资持续增长。中国银行国际金融研究所常务副所长陈卫东表示，当前投资领域存在两个突出问题：，有吸引力的投资项目比较缺乏，投资者积极性不高。第二，投资项目缺少资金支持。在房地产和制造业投资增长放缓概率较大的背景下，今年二季度，基础设施和部分服务业的投资快速增长成为稳定投资增长的希望所在，特别是中央预算加快对水利等项目资金的下达进度，同时加快投融资体制改革、推广PPP模式、放宽社会资本准入、鼓励创新创业等，都有利于稳定投资增长。

市场更是预测，致力于增加有效投资的政策很可能在本月中上旬就会出台。汪涛认为，鉴于经济开局乏力，在未来几周、几个月中将有更多宽松措施出台，包括加快基建项目建设和资金拨付，以及加快放松服务业管制等有利于增长的改革。货币政策也将趋于宽松，包括在二季度和下半年降息以及1到2次降准。年内房地产政策也可能进一步放松。

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